Research
Research
[1] Shaarif Sameer, “Authoritarian Alignment: Domestic Threats and the Search for External Patronage.” Under Review, International Interactions.
How does the domestic threat environment shape alignment behavior of authoritarian regimes? Why do some autocracies draw closer to great powers while others keep their distance? I argue that changes to the domestic threat environment - mass political movements and elite-level threats - shape the alignment behavior of authoritarian regimes in distinct ways. When internal threats to regime stability are heightened, autocracies are more likely to strengthen their alignment with great powers. To test this, I construct a dyadic panel covering all autocracies from 1990 to 2020 and their relations with three great powers: the United States, Russia, and China. The findings show that domestic threat levels affect alignment decisions in distinct ways. However, I find no evidence that authoritarian regimes prefer to align with fellow autocratic great powers (Russia and China). Instead, their alignment choices reflect domestic survival considerations rather than regime-type affinity.
[2] Shaarif Sameer, “Authoritarian Alignment and Great Power Patronage: Evidence from Pakistan.” Under Review, Foreign Policy Analysis.
When and why do authoritarian regimes align with great powers? I argue that changes in a regime’s threat environment, both internal and external, drive its alignment strategies. In response to an increase in threat levels, regimes use a combination of survival strategies that rapidly exhaust domestic resources and capacities. This capacity gap pushes regimes to seek external patronage from great powers as a means to secure resources that they use to ensure survival. I evaluate this argument using an in-depth case study of Pakistan under General Pervez Musharraf (1999–2008). Drawing on process tracing using archival sources, such as diplomatic briefs and policy documents, as well as semi-structured interviews with key officials, I trace key decision points in the pre-9/11 period to show how security concerns, economic vulnerability, and a legitimacy crisis shaped the regime’s decision to align with the United States in its War on Terror after 9/11. This study has important implications for understanding authoritarian resilience and the foreign policy of autocratic regimes.
[3] Shaarif Sameer, “Great Power Alignment and Military Autonomy in Authoritarian Regimes.”
[4] Shaarif Sameer and Asad Ejaz Butt, “Remittances and the Political Economy of Democratic Demand.”