Research
Research
[1] Shaarif Sameer, “Authoritarian Survival: Domestic Threats and the Search for External Patronage.” Under Review, Journal of Peace Research.
How does the domestic threat environment shape alignment behavior of authoritarian regimes? Why do some autocracies draw closer to great powers while others keep their distance? I argue that changes to the domestic threat environment - mass political movements and elite-level threats - shape the alignment behavior of authoritarian regimes in distinct ways. When internal threats to regime stability are heightened, autocracies are more likely to strengthen their alignment with great powers. To test this, I construct a dyadic panel covering all autocracies from 1990 to 2020 and their relations with three great powers: the United States, Russia, and China. The findings show that domestic threat levels affect alignment decisions in distinct ways. However, I find no evidence that authoritarian regimes prefer to align with fellow autocratic great powers (Russia and China). Instead, their alignment choices reflect domestic survival considerations rather than regime-type affinity.
[2] Shaarif Sameer, “Authoritarian Alignment and Great Power Patronage: Evidence from Pakistan.”
When and why would authoritarian regimes align with great powers, and when do they keep their distance? I argue that changes in a regime’s threat environment, both internal and external, drive its alignment strategies. In response to an increase in threat levels, regimes seek strong alignment with great powers to secure resources, legitimacy, and protection. I evaluate this argument using an in-depth case study of Pakistan under General Pervez Musharraf (1999–2008). Drawing on process tracing using archival resources, such as policy briefs and newspapers, as well as semi-structured interviews with key officials, I trace key decision points in the pre-9/11 period to show how security concerns, economic vulnerability, and legitimacy crisis shaped the regime’s decisions to align with the United States in its war on terror after 9/11.
[3] Shaarif Sameer, “How Alignment Choices Lead to Authoritarian Consolidation.”
[4] Shaarif Sameer and Asad Ejaz Butt, “Remittances and the Political Economy of Democratic Demand.”